Monday, June 14, 2010

Latest Poll: Rob Ford Takes The Lead In Toronto Mayoral Race

CP24, CTV and The Globe and Mail just released their latest Toronto Mayoral Race Poll, and it has Rob Ford as the new leader!

The Poll of 1,000 Municipal Voters was taken by telephone and conducted from June 7th until June 11th.

Here are the official results and story from CP24:

New poll suggests Ford leading pack of mayoral candidates
A new poll, commissioned by CP24, suggests outspoken spendthrift Rob Ford may be inching slightly over the competition in the race to take over the mayor's seat in Toronto's municipal election this fall.

People were asked "If an election were held today, who would be your first and second choice?"


Rob Ford: 17.8%
George Smitherman: 15.9%
Joe Pantalone: 10.1%
Rocco Rossi: 9%
Sarah Thomson: 5.8%
Giorgio Mammoliti: 2.5%

Undecided: 38.9%

Margin of Error: +/-3.1%

Rob Ford reacted to the poll by saying voters know he's a "no-nonsense kind of guy."

"I'm going to watch every cent spent at city hall and they say thank God it's about time," he said. "People are actually thanking me for getting into the race."

Ford says he will save Toronto taxpayers money by eliminating councillor perks.

Rossi said he's going to keep working hard.

"Slow and steady and hard work wins the race and I'm delighted we have a race," he told CTV News Sunday afternoon.

The Toronto Sun had the following reactions from Candidates to this latest poll:

Rob Ford now in lead: Poll
In an e-mail to the Sun, Smitherman’s spokesman Stefan Baranski called the poll “a wake up call.”

“It’s clear we need to do a better job of sharing his vision with voters, and that is exactly what we will be doing.”

“With Mr. Ford now as the frontrunner, we expect he will face the scrutiny his views and record deserve,” he said.

Ford campaign spokesman Adrienne Batra welcomed the Smitherman campaign’s challenge to scrutinize her candidate’s record.

“Mr. Ford would stand by his record any day,” she said.

Ford - who spent last week raging about Councillor Kyle Rae expensing his own retirement reception to his office budget - called the poll proof his message is resonating.

“There is no doubt that Torontonians are fed up with the waste and mismanagement at City Hall,” Ford stated in a campaign press release Sunday night. “My message to the residents of Toronto has been clear - I will clean up the mess.

“On October 25th, when I am elected mayor, my colleagues will have to learn that it’s time to turn off the lights, because the party with taxpayers’ money is over,” Ford stated.

*************************** UPDATE ******************************************
Here's a link to the actual Toronto Mayoral Race Polling Results Report PDF from Nanos Research, in case you're interested: STAT SHEET - TORONTO MUNICIPAL ELECTION 2010-06 - Globe/CTV/CP24/Nanos Research Poll. They asked Torontonians a bunch of questions, so the report is definitely worth reviewing.

(6 Main Toronto Mayoral Candidates at The Habitat for Humanity Mayoral Debate)

Meanwhile, the Toronto Star also released its latest Poll for the Mayoral Race, which was given to 405 people and taken from June 11th to 13th.

Here's the Star's official results and story:

Ford catches up to Smitherman, but voters still want Tory: poll
Outspoken right-wing councillor Rob Ford has pulled neck-and-neck with George Smitherman in the Toronto mayoral race — but John Tory would blow both out of the water if he were to run, a new poll says.

The survey of 405 Torontonians was conducted by Forum Research Inc. between Friday and Sunday and provided exclusively to the Star.


George Smitherman: 29%
Rob Ford: 26%
Sarah Thomson: 17%
Joe Pantalone: 12%
Rocco Rossi: 10%
Giorgio Mammoliti 4%

Undecided: 44%

Margin of Error: +/-4.9%

“It’s a dogfight between Ford and Smitherman — they are well ahead of the others,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff in an interview, adding that 44 per cent of respondents in the telephone poll were undecided.

The poll has some bitter fruit for Miller. Asked if Toronto is better off now than when he took office seven years ago, only 29 per cent said yes, with 38 per cent saying no, 16 per cent saying the situation hasn’t changed and 16 per cent undecided.

“Those numbers say he made the right decision in getting out before he got kicked out,” Bozinoff said.

The Toronto Star, for some reason seems to be obsessed with the idea of John Tory running for Mayor, even though he constantly rejects the idea. Not to mention that he has a conflict since his son is on the Sarah Thomson campaign... Given that George Smitherman would be the only person to benefit directly from a John Tory late run, I'm not surprised that the Star keeps pushing that idea.

...What? Yeah, I said it!

Lastly, for your reference (and as a reminder), I thought I would also include the results of the Toronto Star's previous poll taken from April 8th to April 12th on 413 people.

Here are those results and the story from The Toronto Star:

Ford surges into second place in mayoral poll
The online poll of 413 Torontonians, conducted between last Thursday and Monday, puts Smitherman at 34 per cent support, followed by Ford at 27 per cent; Joe Pantalone at 14 per cent; Rossi at 13 per cent; Sarah Thomson at 7 per cent; and Giorgio Mammoliti at 3 per cent. Two per cent chose other candidates.


George Smitherman: 34%
Rob Ford: 27%
Joe Pantalone: 14%
Rocco Rossi: 13%
Sarah Thomson: 7%
Giorgio Mammoliti 3%
Other: 2%

Margin of Error: 4.8%

Undecided: 51%

My biggest surprise in these latest polls is the rise of Sarah Thomson in the one by the Toronto Star! 17%! People must have been impressed by her in that latest Mayoral Debate! (I know I was...)

The Toronto Star article had this to say about it:
Also remarkable, Bozinoff said, is the fact that Thomson, the Women’s Post publisher and recently a political unknown, is polling ahead of Pantalone, the deputy mayor, and Rossi, the former chief executive of the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario.

“She is making a very impressive showing,” he said, noting that her support among decided male respondents is only 8 per cent, while 26 per cent of decided women would vote for her.

So, depending on whichever poll you want to listen to, those are the latest results.

The one thing that is certain, is that if you haven't taken Rob Ford seriously until this point, this is definitely a wake-up call for you!

And Frivilous George, you may not be such a lock after all, eh... :)


(Image: by veggiefrog on flickr by Rocco Rossi on flickr


randay047 said...

Hello Jack and Coke,

Thank you so much for posting this. Also, I want to thank you for posting about the Toronto Star poll as well. My only question is: Why are the numbers so different? It's a little confusing. But who knows?

I see you have been impressed with the Sarah Thomson campaign. That's wonderful news. It's a fact that she's a force to be reckoned with.

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